The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 (CNN 221023) flips in order of probability according to CNN Democrat Joe Manchin (W.Virginia) Democrat Jon Tester (Montana) Democrat Sherrod Brown (Ohio) Democrat Bob Casey (Pennsylviana) Independent Kyrsten Sinema (ex Democrat) Arizona Democrat Jacky Rosen (Nevada) Democrat Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring) (Michigan) Republican Ted Cruz (Texas) Republican Rick Scott (Florida) with system:unfiled